Marketing

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Sales Forecasting

Small Word,  Big Definition A process that will help prepare you for an upcoming scenario. Using past data (History, Trends) to reduce risks due to uncertainty.   Here are my simple approach to making a forecast (in Business/Marketing/Sales) Sales forecast, is a prediction of sales value over a period of time. This is the basis of marketing mix and sales planning. Short Term: Usually a one year period where sales budget is linked to it thus giving an overall picture for the firms performance. This gives a picture to plan sales resources and prepare expenditure required to meet the sales performance. The helps with assessing cash flow, in / out. The needs and sources. Long Term: Usually a 5 years’ forecasts. The focus is on Capital Budget needs and process of the firm. It provides for the changing the market strategy of the firm. It includes references to emerging product that the market needs. New market segments that needs to be created, reviewing distributing networks, promotional programs. Reorganizing sales force, marketing setups. Methods of Sales Forecasting: There are five methods: 1) Executive Judgment Based on experiences, past performances, intuitions. Works well when the market is stable. Salesforce composite method and jury of executive opinion are the two popular forms used in this method of sales forecasting. 2) Survey: Prediction can be ascertained by collecting a response from a survey. Customer Survey: to determine the changes in tastes and preferences, types and value of price opinions of customers. Sales force Survey: to determine territory take offs, company’s market share, competitor’s analysis from your sales channel/team. Dealers are also included in sales force survey. Expert Survey:  to determine the survey reports from the view point of the industry experts and consultants. This helps identify new dimensions for consideration of managements. 3) Time Series Analysis: Helps locate trends, seasons, cyclical and random factor changes associated with the past data. Experience reveal that time series analyses for sales forecasting are quite accurate for short and medium term forecasts and more so when demand is stable or follows the past behavior. 4) Correlation and regression methods: The method examines the past sales volumes with one or more other variables. The variables considered are usually population, per capita income, or gross national product.  The regression analysis is carried out to compare sales with that of changes in economics, competition, and internal variable of the firm.  The goal is identifying the association of factors that influences performance. Advance version will have: Cause and Effect Relationship. Econometric model, Input-Output Model, Life-Cycle Analysis, New Product’s Growth rate on S-Curve 5) Market Tests: Used to develop one time forecasts particularly to new products. This gives insight to various elements of marketing mix vs consumer’s actual purchases and responsiveness of the product. Experiences puts out that combining various methods results greatly surpasses most individual methods of sales forecasts. Combined use of quantitative and qualitative methods of sales forecasting in a given situation rather than using either two can improve accuracy of the forecasts. Here is a 1971 Review Article that was published in Harvard Business Review. (Click Here)    

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Keeping Your Clients Happy Lbsr 974x296

Customer satisfaction: keeping your valuable clients happy

Hi, Here is an excerpt article i found in a Research Material from London Business School Review. Which customers generate the most profit for your business and does it pay to put their happiness above all others? Vasiliki Kostami explains A research carried out on a nightclub. Some women will happily work out in a gym that welcomes both genders. Others would rather attend a ladies-only club, a factor that will lead to dissatisfaction if their expectations aren’t met. The same principle applies to bars. Many men like venues with more members of the opposite sex, but women prefer places that attract similar numbers of males and females. “While the venue and facilities may be the same, people’s perception of the service quality is unique and often influenced by other customers” While the venue and facilities may be the same, people’s perception of the service quality is unique and often influenced by other customers. Issues such as the age, socioeconomic status and perceived intelligence of other people – be they gym members, club-goers or holidaymakers – can also affect someone’s level of satisfaction in a positive or negative way. So how do service providers go about establishing their customers’ specific preferences and understanding which patrons are willing to pay more to get what they want? Vasiliki Kostami, Assistant Professor of Management Science and Operations, explores this issue in her research paper ‘Pricing and Capacity Allocation for Shared Services’. The study looks at how businesses facing this challenge can use pricing and capacity allocation, such as restricting access to certain people, to appeal to specific customers. “Nightclubs may introduce pricing promotions, giving women free or cheaper drinks in order to attract more of them,” Dr Kostami says. She adds that a cruise ship operator could choose to restrict access by catering to just singles, couples or more mature holidaymakers, while gym membership might be open to women only. Men often pay more to enter a nightclub to compensate women who have to share the venue with them Man-free zone: restricting access to women only Restricted access sounds like a simple way to satisfy certain customers, but it can create a huge headache for businesses. Fitness USA angered some customers – mostly male – when the management decided to make two of its gyms in Michigan women-only. The new policy also disappointed one female who was unhappy about her monthly membership fee increasing from US$19 (£14.75) to $24 (£18.6). Despite the criticism, Fitness USA held firm. Introducing new pricing or restricted access is less problematic for other sectors, according to Dr Kostami. “The cruise industry can organise trips for church groups, Star Trek fans or singles without being accused of excluding others,” she says. “Such cruises target a homogenous group of people who share a common interest, helping to spark conversation and develop bonds among passengers. In these cases, the service experience and pricing strategy is designed to appeal to a particular customer segment. This can only happen once a distinction is made between those who want the service and the people who aren’t interested.” These examples show that the reaction to charging different types of people varying prices or limiting their access to certain services depends on the industry. “The challenge for businesses is how to maximise profits when making decisions that could potentially anger customers or create legal issues” The challenge for businesses is how to maximise profits when making decisions that could potentially anger customers or create legal issues. With their venues’ capacity in mind, companies have to ask themselves: which customers should we target, without necessarily trying to cater to as many people as possible, and charge them based on how much they are willing to pay. They also need to establish whether: to offer an exclusive service to a specific customer segment or roll it out to many people who share the same venue customers who fall into different categories or segments are charged differently the venue is exclusive to certain customer segments (non-smoking restaurants in countries where people can still smoke in eateries), or always available to all. Dr Kostami’s research suggests that businesses may be better off if they target just one customer segment rather than several – especially if price discrimination isn’t an option. This could be for legal reasons or because different types of customers aren’t happy about sharing the same venue. Take Fitness USA’s decision to convert two venues to women-only gyms. Restricting access to females means that most women are willing to pay more for the overall service. Moreover, the company doesn’t have to worry about what to charge men, so there’s no danger of price discrimination. This problem could arise if, for example, women were charged less to share the gym with men. Another option to restricting access is for service providers to introduce a ‘time allocation’ policy, where they offer exclusive use of their venue to different customers at varying times. Getting the pricing wrong or charging different people varying fees can alienate one or more customer segments The cost of open house versus exclusive access For a service provider that relies on price, the choice between giving certain people exclusive access and making the whole venue available to all depends on net appreciation between customer segments. Net appreciation refers to the average level of satisfaction based on how negative or positive people feel about other customers who receive the same service. “If the net mutual appreciation is positive, businesses will more likely hold events or provide services where customers from different segments can interact. If negative, it might be better to give each customer class exclusive access at the venue or let them use it but at different times,” Dr Kostami says. But how does net appreciation relate to price? In a bar with no gender restrictions, males may pay more. This is to compensate women who have to share the same venue with men. The prices change when restricting access to one or several customer segments.

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Doubling The Profit!!!

How? With 182 Restaurant Visit a week, here is what i came across. Profit Doubling is really pulling out the minimum of 10% More Like 100 customers to 110 customer Like 100 Rupees revenue to 110 Rupees That figure repeated over each customer over the month is definitely is  a booster. Its easier because you are pursuing it over an average. All you need is to bump a customer to visit 1 time extra to your restaurant. 10 customers visit 1 time extra to your restaurant is almost 10% increase right there. This I see is more real time engaging and objective. Customer Review- Customer Word of Mouth Making a customer happy, identify them, their needs, their requirements. Usually we recognize 3-10 people’s face but how will you recognize the rest. This is important, lets say Mr. XYZ how was French Fries you had the last time? Mr XYZ may i recommend you our MoMo with Cheese Sticks on the sides? #Valued Customer Right There. Thats added Referrals and Recommendation. Other things I Noticed Was: Competitive Engagement. Remember How Red Mud began, its campaigns were always, Who Eats the Most? or The Rap Battles etc. Competition, Thats Fun, Engaging, Involves a Lot of people coming in together. Freebies and Gifts Why do this? Because it’s an amazing offer, it grabs attention, and who doesn’t want to sign up for a free meal, per day, for an entire year? Snaps with the Celebrities Remember the CocaCola Mahotsav, MNS Vmag Hunger Hunt, these are sponsored by the brands to visit the restaurants, which in return helps the restaurant business with celebrity presence. Usually its expensive to ask a celebrity to visit in, but getting a sponsor like Coca Cola, Pepsi to walk in highly effective.

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